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Analysis of the match between Manchester City and Newcastle United
Man City must be feeling delighted as they watch Arsenal continue to drop points in the race for the Premier League title this season. Their 2-2 draw at Wolverhampton Wanderers means the gap between the two teams could shrink to just 2 points if Arsenal fails to win against Newcastle United in the next round.
There are plenty of reasons to believe in a victory for Pep Guardiola’s side. First, Man City have won all six of their most recent home matches against Newcastle United in the Premier League without conceding a goal. In league history, only against Stoke City have they had a longer winning streak under the same conditions (seven matches from 1982–2014).
A solid defense is another key factor. Since conceding four goals in the 5-4 win over Fulham in December 2025, Man City have allowed just eight goals in their last 12 Premier League matches—the fewest of any team since round 15—while goalkeeper Gianluigi Donnarumma made three crucial saves according to xGoT (11 xGoT, 8 goals conceded).
Another factor comes from Newcastle’s record. All nine of their most recent away wins in the Premier League have been against bottom-half teams. They have not won any of their last 10 away games against top-half teams (three draws, seven losses) since their 3-1 victory over Nottingham Forest in November 2024, and have not won in 37 matches against teams in the Top 2 (five draws, 32 losses) since beating Arsenal 3-1 in December 2001.
Historical stats also show that since the 2010/11 season, English managers have led 76 away games against Man City in the Premier League but only once won: Roy Hodgson with Crystal Palace won 3-2 in December 2018, with the rest being eight draws and 67 losses.
