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Analysis of the match between Italy and Northern Ireland
Italy have long been regarded as one of the most traditional powerhouses in major European and world football tournaments. However, the Azzurri’s 2026 World Cup qualifying campaign did not go as smoothly as expected. Inconsistent results, especially two defeats against Norway, prevented Gennaro Gattuso’s side from securing direct qualification and forced them into the high-pressure route of the play-offs.
To achieve their goal of reaching the 2026 World Cup finals this summer, Italy must first overcome the challenge of Northern Ireland. Although not considered a particularly strong side in terms of squad quality, Northern Ireland are well known for their disciplined, stubborn and difficult style of play, especially in defence. For that reason, the Azzurri must make full use of their home advantage in the first leg if they want to avoid putting themselves in a difficult position ahead of the return match.
Home advantage is clearly a key factor for Italy in this encounter. According to recent statistics, the Azzurri have won three of their last four home matches, and notably, all three of those victories came with clean sheets. In addition, their historical record against Northern Ireland on home soil is also strongly in their favour. In six previous home meetings, Italy have won four and drawn two, while not conceding a single goal in any of those matches. Those numbers highlight the clear dominance of the hosts whenever they face Northern Ireland.
Of course, at this point, Italy are no longer as intimidating as they were during their peak years. Even so, their experience and composure as a traditional heavyweight in major tournaments could still be enough to inspire confidence in a positive result for the Azzurri in the first leg. That said, this is unlikely to be an easy contest, as Northern Ireland are also showing strong determination in their attempt to book a place at the 2026 World Cup.
Italy’s difficulties are further increased by the current limitations in attack. With a lack of top-class strikers and several injury problems affecting the frontline, breaking down Northern Ireland’s disciplined defensive system will certainly not be an easy task for Gattuso’s men. Given the current situation, an Italy win still appears to be the more likely outcome, but it may well come as a narrow and hard-fought victory by a single-goal margin.
